只需看看科技领域，便能了解中国和印度唇齿相依

印度对于中国的依赖是全方位的，“反华”的印度人并不了解印度想要完全摆脱对中国的依赖会有多难。

By Sherisse Pham and Rishi Iyengar

China and India are locked in a tense diplomatic and military standoff after a deadly border skirmish earlier this week. The economic stakes are high too, given the huge trading relationship and particularly close ties in technology.

中国与印度在6月经历了一次致命的小规模边境冲突，之后就进入了外交与军事上的僵持局面。与此同时，考虑到中印两国之间的巨量贸易往来以及在科技方面的紧密连接，冲突所带来的经济风险也同样巨大。

India imports more goods from China than any other country. And over the past decade, India and China have enabled each other's rise as emerging technology powerhouses. Chinese tech giants have invested billions of dollars into India's biggest startups, while its smartphone makers dominate the country's market and Indians have flocked to apps like TikTok.

印度从中国进口的物品超过了其他任何国家。在过去的十年时间内，印度和中国也成就彼此，双双成为新兴的科技强国。中国的科技巨头们在印度投资了数十亿美元来支持当地的最大的创业公司们，它的智能手机制造商们则主导了印度的手机市场。同时，印度国民也涌向了中国的app们，例如TikTok。

Now, the dispute threatens those ties. Growing anti-China sentiment in India has already led to calls for a boycott of Chinese products and services, while new rules on foreign investment could constrain China's ability to cash in on India's internet boom.

而眼下的边境冲突，正威胁着两国之间的联系。在印度越发壮大的反华情绪，已经激发了抵制中国产品和服务的呼吁，而外资投资的新规出台也可能限制中国对印度的互联网热潮的资助能力。

01

Deep ties

紧密相连

China has created a significant place for itself in India's technology sector over the last five years, according to a report published by Indian foreign policy think tank Gateway House. Unable to convince India to sign on to its global infrastructure project known as the Belt and Road Initiative, China entered India's tech scene by flooding the market with cheap smartphones from brands such as Xiaomi and Oppo and plowing money into Indian startups.

根据印度外交智库Gateway House的研究报告，中国在过去的五年里已经成为印度科技领域内一个举足轻重的角色。尽管未能成功说服印度加入“一带一路”倡议，但中国运用小米，Oppo等廉价智能手机品牌打开了印度市场，并且投资印度的初创企业，从而进入了印度的科技领域。

Gateway House estimates that Chinese investors have poured some $4 billion into Indian tech startups since 2015.

Gateway House估算得出，中国投资人自2015年起已经向印度的初创科技企业投入了近40亿美元的巨额财富。

Alibaba (BABA), for example, has invested in Indian e-commerce company Snapdeal, digital wallet Paytm and food delivery platform Zomato. Tencent (TCEHY), meanwhile, has backed Indian messaging company Hike and ride hailing app Ola. Gateway House found that more than half of India's 30 unicorns — private firms worth more than $1 billion -— have Chinese investors.

举例来说，阿里巴巴投资了印度的电子商务公司Snapdeal、电子钱包公司Paytm和外卖平台Zomato。与此同时，腾讯也支持了印度的短讯公司Hike 以及打车应用Ola。Gateway House发现，印度30家独角兽公司（估值超过十亿美元的私有企业）之中有超半数背后都有来自中国的投资人。

And Huawei is still in the running to help build 5G networks in India's fast-growing internet economy, despite a US-led campaign against the Chinese company.

"China was hoping to be the dominant player in this internet market," said Amit Bhandari, fellow at Gateway House and co-author of the report.

更进一步来看，尽管美国针对华为发起了一系列抵制活动，但华为仍在帮助印度建设5 G网络，以支持其高速发展的互联网经济。“中国想要在这个互联网市场上做占据主导地位的玩家，” Gateway House的研究员、上述报告的联名作者Amit Bhandari如此说到。

India is also key to China's goal of becoming a dominant force in global tech, according to Sukanti Ghosh, South Asia head for the Washington-based think tank Albright Stonebridge Group.

据坐落于华盛顿的智库Albright Stonebridge Group的南亚负责人Sukanti Ghosh的观点来看，印度对于中国成为全球性的科技主导力量也是不可或缺的。

"I don't believe anyone has been a loser in this relationship, both countries have gained substantially," Ghosh said, adding that it "ties in with the Chinese strategy of Asian dominance and its increasing competition with the United States."

“在双方的关系中，我认为有哪一方是输家，双方都增强了发展的可持续性，” Ghosh说到，并且强调“这些做法强化了中国对于亚洲的主导性，并且增强了其与美国的竞争力。”

But earlier this year, India signaled it was taking steps to curb China's growing influence. In April, the government announced that foreign direct investments (FDI) from countries that share a land border with India would be subject to more scrutiny.

但是今年的早些时候，印度就发出了信号，表明其正在采取措施来遏制中国逐步增强的影响力。四月，印度政府宣布，来自与本国接壤的国家的外资直接投资(FDI)将会受到更多的审核以及监管。

Analysts say the new rules are vague. For example, investments in social media platforms that would raise questions about data storage and privacy will likely receive more scrutiny, Bhandari said. The government says the rules are intended to fend off opportunistic acquisitions and takeovers of Indian companies grappling with the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.

分析师认为这些新规的概念是模糊的。比如说，对于社交媒体平台的投资会引发数据储存与隐私的担忧，因此会受到更多的审视，Bhandari如此说到。政府表示这些规定意在防止外国资本趁新冠之机对印度的企业进行投机式的并购。

They also appear to be aimed squarely at China.

新规看起来是专门针对中国企业制定的。

Pakistan, India's arch rival, is not going to invest in India in any meaningful way, according to Bhandari, and the rest of the countries that share a border with India are small and not known for making large investments.

印度的主要对手是巴基斯坦。据Bhandar的看法，巴基斯坦是不会在印度采取任何有意义的投资行为的，而与印度接壤的其它国家大多数都偏小。公开信息显示，这些国家也没有在印度有任何巨量投资。

"It was directed at China, but not in a direct way," he said.

Bhandar认为：“这些新规是直接针对中国的，只不过不以一种直接形式进行表现而已。”

Bhandari said tightening FDI rules was a message to Chinese firms that they can still export software and hardware to India, but they won't be able to dominate Indian's internet ecosystem.

Bhandari表示，收紧FDI的规定对中国的企业传达了这样一个信息：它们仍可以向印度出口软件与硬件，但不能主导印度的互联网生态。

Basically, "China will not have a free run in this market," he said.

他说：“简单来说，中国不能在这个市场内自由发展。”

The government policy was initially met with skepticism by some in India's tech sector. Then a cross-border skirmish between Chinese and Indian forces broke out in May, resulting in minor injuries to troops.

一开始，这项政府政策面临了来自印度科技领域内的质疑声音。但随后，中印边境军事冲突在五月爆发，导致了军队的少量伤亡。

The incident — at a remote, mountainous crossing close to Tibet — was the latest in a long line of border flare-ups, and it fueled a fresh round of anti-China sentiment in India. Tensions ramped up considerably on Tuesday, when at least 20 Indian soldiers were killed during a clash with Chinese troops, according to the Indian army.

这起事件发生在接近西藏的偏僻山区，是列双方一系列边境冲突中的最近一次爆发，并且助燃了印度新一轮的反华情绪。紧张情绪在六月中旬显著升温。根据印度军方的说法，至少有二十名印度士兵在与中国军队的冲突中丧生。

02

Redirecting China's influence

重新定位中国影响力

China is bristling at the negative attention.

中国对于所遭受的负面情绪感到不平。

State-run tabloid The Global Times said in an article published earlier this month that India's move to tighten FDI rules "shows the Indian government has been hijacked by domestic anti-China sentiment."

国有媒体环球时报在近期发布的一篇文章中说到，印度想要管控外资投入的规定“表明了印度当局已经被国内的不理智反华情绪所绑架了。”

The tabloid also criticized a recent app downloaded by millions of people in India called "Remove China Apps" that promised to help users scrub Chinese software from their smartphones. Google (GOOGL) yanked it from its app store earlier this month for violating terms.

环球时报同时还批评了近日在印度数百万人中颇为流行的一款手机app：“消除中国Apps”，这款手机应用向用户承诺将帮助他们将智能手机中的中国软件去除掉。谷歌因为其违反自身的规定，本月初的时候，从它的应用商店中下架了这款应用。

"If India allows narrow-minded nationalism to spread to the field of science and technology, it will definitely hurt its own interests in turn," the Global Times wrote.

“如果印度继续允许狭隘的民族主义情绪蔓延至科技领域的话，这无疑将会反过来伤害到印度的切身利益，”环球时报如是报道。

Chinese companies are seeking to establish a long-term presence in India, and their investments in Indian companies give them an enduring stake in the market, according to a Brookings India report published in March.

根据Brookings India在三月发布的报告来看，中国企业们正试图在印度建立长期的存在感，同时他们在印度企业的投资也带给他们于印度市场中一份持久的休戚与共的份额。

"I don't think there's a widespread understanding of how difficult it would be to completely reduce India's reliance on China," said Ananth Krishnan, former Brookings India fellow and author of the report.

“我认为印度的大多数老百姓并不知道印度想要完全摆脱对中国的依赖会有多难。” Ananth Krishnan，Brookings India研究员、上述报告的合作作者向记者表示。

India relies on China for everything "from heavy machinery and all kinds of telecom and power equipment, to active pharmaceutical ingredients," said Krishnan, who is now a reporter with The Hindu newspaper. In his Brookings report, Krishnan estimated that the total current and planned investment from China into India is at least $26 billion.

“印度对于中国的依赖是全方位的，“从重型机械到全品类的电信和动力设备，再到制药所用到的原料，“Krishnan如此说到，他现在印度教徒报担任记者工作。在他的Brookings报告中，Krishnan估算出中国对印度的目前和计划中的总投资额最少也有260亿美元。

Trade between the two countries reached more than $87 billion in the 2018-2019 fiscal year, according to India's Department of Commerce. China was India's second largest trading partner that year, just behind the United States.

根据印度商务部发布的数据，在2018至2019的财年间，两国之间的贸易额达到了870亿美元之多。当年中国仅次于美国，是印度的第二大贸易伙伴国。

But the relationship is one-sided. China exports far more to India than the other way round.

但是这种关系是不对等的。中国向印度出口的物资远超过印度出口到中国的物资。

"These are structural dependencies on China which boycott campaigns aren't really going to address," he said.

“这些都是印度对中国的结构性的依赖性，而这些都是反华运动所不能解决的关键问题，”他说。

Krishnan said the recent tightening of FDI rules weren't aimed at stopping Chinese investment into India, but rather about "redirecting Chinese investment to areas where it will be of greater use to India — into actual [manufacturing] facilities and generating jobs."

Krishnan说到近期的FDI收紧政策并不是旨在阻止中国对印度的投资，相反其主要意在“将来自中国的投资重新导向对印度更加有用的领域－例如让这些资金进入到实际的制造业设施中，并且产出更多的工作机会。”

03

Cutting off China could mean job losses for Indians

与中国脱钩意味着印度公民就业机会的减少

Chinese smartphone makers have already built factories and created jobs in India.

中国的智能手机厂家们经在印度建立了工厂，并且为印度公民们创造了工作机会。

India's emergence as the biggest overseas market for Chinese mobile phone companies is one of the most significant developments in China's relations with India over the past five years.

印度崛起成为中国智能机企业最大的海外市场这件事，是中印关系在过去5年内最有意义的发展。

Last year, four of the top five best-selling smartphone makers in India were Chinese: Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo and Realme, according to market research firm IDC. South Korea's Samsung, the only non-Chinese brand, was the No. 2 seller.

根据IDC的市场调研内容， 去年在印度最畅销的智能手机的前五款中，有四款都来自中国厂家：他们分别是小米，Vivo，Oppo和真我品牌。唯一的非中国品是韩国的三星，销量位列第二。

The India sales of those top Chinese smartphone brands totaled more than $16 billion in 2019, according to IDC.

根据IDC发布的数据，2019年，中国顶级手机品牌在印度的销售额达到了160亿美元。

And all of them have manufacturing facilities in India. Doing so allowed the Chinese firms to both embrace Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" program and avoid stiff import tariffs. Xiaomi manufactures 95% of the phones it sells in India locally.

所有上述厂商都在印度设立了制造设施。这么做帮助他们迎合了莫迪总统“印度制造”的战略，也为他们规避了高额的进口关税，如今小米在印度出售的手机中95%都生产自印度本土。

"So if you're talking about cutting down the sales or shipment for these guys, it also impacts the factories that they have in India," which will "absolutely" affect Indian jobs, said Kiranjeet Kaur, an analyst with IDC.

“所以你在谈论削减这些厂商的营业收入和出货量的话，同样的这些举措也会影响这些商家在印度所设立的工厂，”而这“将毫无疑问地“影响印度人的工作机会，一位IDC的研究员 Kiranjeet Kaur如此表示。

She added that campaigns urging Indians to boycott Chinese goods have happened before, during previous border skirmishes. But they never put a dent in sales of Chinese smartphones in India.

她继续说到，在过去的边境冲突时期，抵制中国货物的活动也曾经发生过。但是这些过往的运动并没有对中国智能机品牌商在印度的销量造成一丝损伤。

So even though many Indians are vowing to cut off Chinese hardware and software, "I really don't think it's going to change their buying decisions at all," Kaur said.

所以尽管很多印度人发誓说要切断中国的硬件和软件，“我真的不认为这会改变他们的购买决定，” Kaur说到。

"They're so dependent on these Chinese phone ecosystems, there's hardly any other choices."

“他们太依赖于中国手机的生态系统了，对于他们来说几乎没有选择的余地。”

原载：2020年6月17日 CNN Business；翻译：杨赛