朱宁对话诺奖得主席勒：美股像极了1929年股灾之前 大量散户正冲进股市
2020年，百年不遇的新冠疫情席卷全球，全球化遭遇严重打击，世界经济陷入衰退，价值和族群空前撕裂。面对百年未有之变局，由凤凰网、中国企业改革与发展研究会主办，经济参考报战略支持的“2020凤凰网财经峰会”在北京举办，本届峰会以“破局与新生”为主题，盛邀政商学界顶级嘉宾，围绕全球和中国经济发展建言献策，凝聚共识。
在“2020凤凰网财经峰会”闭幕对话上，2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、耶鲁大学经济学教授罗伯特-席勒与上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授、副院长朱宁就股市、房地产和国际关系等话题展开讨论。
值得注意的是，罗伯特·席勒正是朱宁在耶鲁大学攻读金融学博士学位时的导师，这场难得的师徒对话也为观众献上了一场思想的盛宴。
股市：美股处于非理性繁荣状态现在像极了1929年和2000年“股灾”之前
今年年初，美股受疫情影响全球股市暴跌，但是随后却出现报复性反弹并多次创造新高。对于美国股市的异常表现，席勒表示，根据“周期调整市盈率”的理论，市场可能已经处于非理性繁荣的状态。
“在美国历史上只有几个时期的股指像现在这么高，一个是1929年，在经济大萧条之前，另一个是2000年，也就是网络泡沫之前”。席勒还表示，相较于1929年和2000年，当前市场长期利率非常低，所以和历史数据相比现在的股票市场和债券市场都被高估。
根据席勒的问卷调查，在美国他并不是唯一担心美股暴跌的人。席勒表示，在他调查问卷中一个问题是美股出现1929年式下跌的概率有多大，在过去半年有非常多投资者表示过针对这个问题的担心。
“现在的情况和1929年有点类似，那就是大家害怕美股下跌，而抱有这一观点的投资者比看好美股的投资者更多，在经济学上有一个预先存在的理论，假设很多人害怕股市暴跌，尽管他们不认为经济出现问题，但是如果这个想法挥之不去，就有一定概率诱发”席勒说到。
朱宁表示，“历史上任何一种泡沫的出现都是受新因素的影响，特别是人们以前没有见过的因素。正如当前美股的V型反弹，相信绝对投资者很长一段时间没有讲过，所以个人经验的缺失在深刻影响我们的行为”。
此外，朱宁还指出，“今年有一点非常明显的特点，无论在中国股市还是美国股市散户的数量在疫情期间都有较大幅度的增长，人们要么追加投资，要么被迫采取更多的杠杆或承担更多的债务”。
房地产：技术和疫情可以让大城市房价下跌
对于房地产席勒认为，“现在主要的资产类别如股票、债券、房地产都很贵，这反映了一种繁荣”。
席勒表示“曾经人们普遍认为房价是稳定的，而房地产泡沫这个名词直到21世纪才出现。美国在19世纪八九十年代，有过一次房地产泡沫，但当时报纸上的一篇文章这样写道‘我们应该管它叫泡沫吗？不，我更喜欢用繁荣这个词’。但是现在我们说房地产泡沫，人们担心房地产泡沫会破灭，尤其现在这种繁荣只出现在大城市”。
对于未来房价，席勒认为随着新技术的发展，大城市的主导地位受到挑战，这是楼市的另一个不确定因素。“现在我们可以实现跨大洋交流，我们已经不需要生活在大城市，在家办公是一种趋势，我们生活变得更加智能。如果这种趋势持续，大城市的房价就会下降，因为大家不需要住在大城市了”席勒说到。
席勒还表示，“在大城市要面对拥堵的人群和交通、空气污染等问题，之所以选择大城市是因为生活在这里，而且大城市还有餐厅、博物馆、各种表演等公共设施，但如果因为疫情的原因可能不再享受这些便利，这也会对大城市房价造成影响”。
谈金融科技：金融科技正在加剧社会不平等，而这往往有利于极小部分人
对于近期市场讨论较多的金融科技，席勒表示，“过去人们认为金融科技正在加剧社会不平等，往往有利于极小部分人，它们是技术先进、发展迅速的企业的一部分，这是对自由企业经济的一种担忧，没有一种理论表示不能出现技术变革，不能从根本上改变收入分配，不能让人们落伍”。
席勒谈到：“在我最新出版的《叙事经济学》一书中谈到技术创新如何引发人们的恐惧。追溯历史，人们对技术创新的恐惧古已有之，最久远的可以追溯到公元前4世纪的亚里士多德，在他的一本书中有一段话‘如果机器出现并取代人类工作’。而最近这个故事的主角被重新命名为‘人工智能’。这是新一轮的恐怖故事，金融科技身为这个故事的一部分也参与其中。现在在股票市场上，你不只是在和人交易，你还在和电脑交易，机器在学习你的癖好。如果它们发现你犯了某种错误，机器就会去加以利用”。
朱宁则表示“疫情为某些新技术的应用提供了完美的理由，与此同时，可以肯定的是在疫情爆发之后财富分配不平等变得更加严重”。
“尽管西方社会在过去几十年里一直在努力尝试，但是我们看到的是收入和财富的不平等愈发严重，这就造成了各种各样的社会问题和政治问题”朱宁说到。
谈国际关系：拜登是一个心地善良的人特朗普大喊大叫看起来很愤怒
谈及中美关系与中美贸易，席勒表示，“在特朗普政府的领导下中美关系变得对立，特朗普受其顾问彼得-纳瓦罗的影响，他曾写了一本叫《致命中国》的书，内容非常夸张，他们把很多问题归咎于中国”。
“当不平等变得愈发严重，特朗普他们开始寻求“替罪羊”，那就是墨西哥和中国，墨西哥派遣大量的工人和美国人争夺工作，而中国出口了太多货物。但是一直以来，美国很多东西是中国制造，中国的发展促进了美国的繁荣，但是特朗普政府反其道而行之。”席勒说到。
尽管无法预测拜登未来会有哪些具体政策，但是席勒认为他会比特朗普好很多。席勒认为“拜登与特朗普有一个根本区别，拜登是一个心地善良的人，他总是心怀感激，而特朗普看起来总是很愤怒，他总是拳打脚踢、大喊大叫，一直在生气，我不认为这对国际关系有好处”。
以下为朱宁及席勒凤凰网财经峰会对话实录：
Zhu Ning: Hello, Professor Shiller. It is very good to have you for the Phoenix Annual Finance Summit. And as we all know that we have gone through a very eventful year for 2020. And as we are approaching the end of 2020, I think the audience in China is very curious about your expert views on so many important issues related to global economy, US politics, US-China relationship, and most of all ideas, the pandemic. So, you have been widely regarded as the expert on behavioral finance and on microfinance. So let me start there.
朱宁：您好，席勒教授。非常高兴您能来参加凤凰财经年度峰会。我们大家都知道，2020年是一个多事之秋。在2020年即将结束的时候，我想中国的观众都非常好奇，您这样的专家对全球经济、美国政治、中美关系，这些重要话题有哪些看法，以及您对这次疫情有什么看法。您是公认的行为金融学的专家，也是微型金融的专家。我们就从这里说起吧。
What this year I think is quite eventful in the way that the US stock market dropped by more than 30% earlier this year as a result of the pandemic. But then to many people’s surprises, not only did it come back, it came back with vengeance and has set new records. You are the one who have designed this methodology of cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. And according to your research, you think the US stock market has probably been in bubble or in irrational exuberance for already some time. What's your take on this year’s performance and if you can make some forecast for the coming year?
今年很重要的一个事件是，年初受疫情影响美国股市下跌30%以上。但是后来出乎很多人的意料，股市不但反弹，而且是报复性的反弹，创造了新的股指记录。您创立了“周期调整市盈率”的理论“。根据您的研究，您认为美国股市可能已经处于泡沫或者非理性繁荣的状态有一段时间了。您对今年美国股市的表现有什么看法，对来年又有哪些预测？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the ratio have become widely quoted on, is this CAPE ‘cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio’. For the United States, dated back to 1981, there are only a couple of periods when it's been as high as it is now. One was 1929, just before the Great Depression, and the other was 2000, when there was a major contraction, that was the dot com bubble. Very high level at the market right now. However, we are also in another circumstance right now which is not shared by those two other moments, 1929 or 2000. That is long term interest rates are very low. So, both markets, stock market and bond market were overpriced by historical comparison. And that finds us need to wonder whether there could be a major contraction in the US stock market. It's not the whole world. CAPE ratios in other countries are also high, including countries like China with high exposure to information technology. It’s both a low interest rate boom, it’s also a technology boom. Communication services which tend to be high tech nowadays. We are doing that right now. We are using advanced communication services. So, it's not clear how to compare this with other episodes. A history is like that. It doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. So I don't know right now, where are we going?
席勒：是的，'周期调整市盈率'，简称CAPE，这个比率已经被广泛使用。对于美国来说，追溯到1981年，只有几个时期的股指像现在这么高。一个是1929年，在经济大萧条之前，另一个是2000年，当时经济萎缩，也就是网络泡沫。现在市场的指数非常高。但是，我们现在还处在另外一个情况下，这是1929年和2000年所没有的，就是长期利率非常低。和历史数据相比，现在的股票市场和债券市场都被高估了。这就引发了我们国家的思考，美国股市会不会出现跳水。世界上其他国家的情况不都是这样。其他国家的CAPE比率也很高，包括中国这种信息技术高度发达的国家。这是低利率带来的繁荣，也是科技的繁荣。现在的通信服务，往往是高科技的，就像我们现在使用的先进的通信服务。所以，无法和历史上的其他时期做比较。历史就是这样，它不是一直在重复的，毫无规律可言。现在我也不知道，未来会如何发展。
However, I am concerned. And I'm not the only person who is concerned. In the United States, I've been doing surveys and investor opinion. And one of the questions is, what is the probability right now of a 1929 style crash? And in that we're seeing in the last six months, record since I started asking that question. In the late 1980s, record had concern about another crash. So in some people's mind, I cannot predict the stock market with great accuracy in short run, but I would say that it's a bit like, we have a preexisting condition. It’s fear of a crash. It's on everyone’s mind. They are dismissing it now, but it’s on their mind. There is some probability of happening. With Covid19, if you have a preexisting condition, you are more likely to get in trouble，with the disease. I think we have a preexisting condition in economics of fear of another crash. It is similar to what we see the year before the crash, 1928, 1929. That fear was well known than most people thought it was good investment. Same thing is happening right now.
但是，我很担心，而且我不是唯一担心的人。在美国，我一直在做调查和搜集投资者的意见。其中一个问题是现在出现1929年式崩盘的概率有多大？在这个问题上，在过去的半年里我收集到的反馈中有非常多的担心。如同20世纪80年代末，一些人认为，在短期内他不能非常准确的预测股市的情况，但他认为，现在的情况和过去有点相像。有一个同样预先存在的情况就是害怕崩盘，每个人都在想这个问题。他们现在认为不会发生经济崩盘，但是这个想法挥之不去。这是有一定发生的概率。对于新冠，如果你认为你可能会感染新冠，那么你感染的概率就会增加。在经济学上，有一个预先存在的条件，就是害怕再次崩盘。这和我们国家在崩盘前一年，1928年、1929年看到的情况类似。和大多数人认为现在适宜投资相比，这种恐惧更加众所周知，同样的事情现在也在发生。
Zhu Ning: I guess the people who tend to disagree with the concern or the fear would say that this time may be different because we are going through non-traditional monetary policy, quantitative easing and talking about MMT, the modern monetary theory. In certain countries, during certain periods, we are witnessing and experiencing negative interest rate. So do you think the change of monetary framework is going to change the way how we assess asset prices and bubble as a result of that?
朱宁：我认为不同意这种担忧或恐惧的人会说，这次可能不一样。因为现在的非传统性货币政策、量化宽松政策、和现代货币理论、MMT，在某些时期，某些国家正在见证和经历负利率。所以你认为货币体系的变化会不会改变我们对资产价格和经济泡沫的评估方式？
Robert J. Shiller: Right. Look at the narrative about the monetary framework.
席勒: 是的。关于货币体系的看法。
Zhu Ning: You are the author of Narrative Economics. Yes, please.
朱宁：您是《叙事经济学》的作者。请说。
Robert J. Shiller: There was the financial crisis over 10 years ago. There was a worldwide phenomenon. At that time, central banks around the world did much more aggressive monetary stimulus than people would have thought. And in particularly adopted quantitative easing. So that was an experiment in monetary policy of 10 years ago. Back then that was controversial. There was a lot of talk about a possible new depression of the stories, of backgrounds became suddenly on people's minds, post 1929 stories. Fear of a great depression suddenly exploded. I can document that with various searches. People were concerned about a crash depression in 2007. But now we are even higher, the market is much higher that it was in 2007, especially in the United States, which is the most expensive stock market in the world. But what happened with the drop this year in stock market. The US stock market between February 19th and March 23rd, fall over. And suddenly made a turn around. So you wonder why did people change their opinion so dramatically in such a short?
席勒: 10多年前发生了全球性的金融危机。当时，全世界的央行都实施了比人们想象中更积极的货币刺激措施，同时还采取了量化宽松的政策。那是10年前货币政策的一次实验，在当时是很有争议的。有很多关于可能出现新的经济大萧条的讨论，1929年之后所发生的事情，再次发生的可能性突然出现在人们脑海中，人们对大萧条的恐惧爆发了。我可以搜索出当时的各种记录：2007年的时候，人们担心会出现崩盘式的大萧条。但是现在指数更高了，市场比2007年还高了很多，特别是美国，美国的股市是全球最高的。但是今年股市下跌是什么原因，美国股市在2月19日到3月23日之间跌幅超过30%，然后突然间暴涨。所以，你想知道为什么短短时间内人们的看法转变如此之大？
It was in crash mode for a month. And suddenly on March 23rd, it turned around. What was happening? You have to say it was something about central bank policy. In the United States, the US federal reserve. And that's the aggressive 2008 stimulus package that involve a lot of new vehicles. That was basically a repeat, maybe more aggressive. I think in a sense, in America, with this aggressive policy, investors thought that this might be the turning point. And then they were reminded that there was a dramatic interest in the stock market starting in the Spring of 2009, just over 10 years ago. And the stock market tripled in less than 10 years to an amazing new high. A lot of people are feeling a sense of regret. I know that the fear of a 1929 style crash was very strong in 2009. So a lot of people got out of the market, only to regret doing that later. The feeling of regret are very motivating. If you made the mistake once, you don’t want to make the same mistake again. So I think people start to come back to the market. There are a lot of people who are in the intermediate state in the March of this year, who thought that ‘this might be the time to buy’. But they just hesitated, and the market start going up. Make the mistake again, so they think maybe it's not too late. And then they push the market up to new highs. So that’s the narrative, a narrative of fear of missing out. Other people were saying ‘it's time to buy and I didn't do it. Oh, my god! Horrible about that’. Also the term ‘vision recovery’ became very popular at that time. And I think it drove the recovery to new heights. People didn't know what to make the Covid19 epidemic. And they didn't know whether they should be out or in of the market. And so there was a rapid learning about epidemics that took place between February and March. And it continued to push the market up after March of 2020.
在过去的一个月美国股市处于崩溃模式，3月23日情况突然转变了，到底发生了什么？不得不说这和美国央行政策有关。受美联储影响，就像2008年的经济刺激计划，刺激汽车行业的发展，其实是同样的手段，或许更积极罢了。我认为在某种意义上，在美国，这种积极的政策，是投资者认为的可能的转折点。然后他们想起，从2009年春天开始，10多年前，股市开始迅猛增长，在不到10年的时间里翻了3倍，创下了惊人的新高，很多人悔之不及。我知道2009年的时候，人们对出现1929年式的崩盘的恐惧非常强烈。所以很多人都退出了市场，却后悔莫及，后悔的力量是非常强大的。如果你犯过一次错误，你不想再犯同样的错误，所以大家开始回归市场。在今年3月份的时候，很多人摇摆不定，他们认为‘现在可能是买入的时候’。但他们只是犹豫了一下，市场就开始涨了，于是又犯了错误。然后他们认为现在也许还来得及，然后把市场推上新高，这就是叙事经济学关于人们害怕错过的故事。有人说‘是时候买了，但我没买。天哪，我太后悔了'。此外，"复苏的愿景"这个词在那个时候变得非常流行，而这进一步刺激了投资者。人们不知道新冠会如何发展，他们也不知道自己应该出局还是入市。于是在2月到3月，人们迅速了解疫情可能造成的影响，并且在2020年3月后继续推高市场。
Zhu Ning: So as we have discussed for quite some time, a key ingredient of any bubble is the new things, things that people have not seen before. And as you pointed out, I think the V-shaped recovery, it's definitely something that investors have not seen in a very long time, at least in the US stock market. So is that personal experience or the lack of personal experience that is a deeply modifying our people’s behavior. And speaking of missing out, I think there is another important cause, which is China’s real estate, which is having a similar kind of condition. And people who make jokes about there are probably two biggest bubbles in the whole world right now, one is the US stock market, the other being the Chinese housing market. And you're a leading expert in real estate, we have talked about the housing market in China for quite some time. And I think you have always expressed some concerns with the housing prices in China. But then you also sort of explain that because the economy is growing very fast, many things could be potentially justified. So with the economic growth gradually come to slowdown in China and also with China's household level of indebtedness has increased tremendously in the past five years or so. Also with Shanghai and Shenzhen becoming some of the most expensive cities in housing prices in absolute terms, what’s your updated review about Chinese housing market?
朱宁：正如我们讨论过的，任何一种泡沫的出现，都是受新因素的影响，特别是人们以前没有见过的。而正如你所指出的，V型复苏绝对是投资者在很长一段时间内都没有看到的，至少在美国股市是这样。所以还是个人经验的缺失，在深刻影响我们的行为。而说到缺失，我认为还有一个重要的原因，就是中国的房地产，它也有类似的状况。人们开玩笑说，现在整个世界上可能有两个最大的泡沫，一个是美国股市，另一个是中国房地产市场。您是房地产领域的权威专家，我们也多次谈论过中国的房地产市场，而且您一直对中国的房价表示有一些担忧。但是您也说过，因为中国经济增长非常快，很多东西都有可能是合理的。随着中国的经济增长逐渐放缓，中国家庭的资产负债水平在过去五年多的时间里有了很大的提高。同时上海和深圳成为房价绝对值最高的一些城市，您对中国的房地产市场有什么最新的评价？
Robert J. Shiller: Oh, that's a big question and not necessarily the world's authority on Chinese housing market. It's a funny situation that we see in the world today. We are all asset classes. The major assets, stocks, bonds and housing are all expensive right now. That reflects a sort of euphoria. But it's tinged with fear. A fear that this might be a harbinger of hard times to come. So people are willing to buy at high prices. That’s unusual situation. Real estate seems to be developing a bubble. Much more happened in the past. The prevailing view among economists is that housing prices are driven by construction class. There is so much land, even in China or the US, that is not that expensive. So I can build a house for you if it isn't in Beijing or Shenzhen. I can build the house for you really cheaply and that was a prevailing view that home prices are stable. And the word ‘housing bubble’ didn’t even come into our vocabulary until the 21st century. They didn't even talk about those terms. I can search for that now with digitized text. There was a housing bubble in the United States in the 1890s, 1880s and I found the newspaper article with someone that writing ‘Should we call this a bubble?’ And he said, ‘No, I like the term boom better because boom doesn't have the connotation that it's going to burst’. So they had housing boomsand they didn't have housing bubbles. But now we've got a new narrative that makes people worry that it might crack down and especially it’s a big city boom. It's not in the countryside so much, although maybe it may also be there. But right now the dominance of big cities is question with new technology. And this is another source of uncertainty about the housing market. Right now we are communicating across oceans. We don't need to live in big cities so much anymore. The question is will you work at home? I think, gradually grow now. And we live more electronically. We have our friends, meetings, meetings with their friends electronically. In that case, it sounds like big city home prices will fall if people don’t need to live there anymore. You want to fight crowds and traffic in the big city and air pollution and all the big city problems. You are attracted to big cities because of events there, because of things like restaurants, or museums, or shows. But if you're reconsidering, I don't want to do those things so much because of Covid19. That also harms big cities. I don't know where that narrative is going. There could be drops in the relative price of big city housing. We have to see how it places out, how it works at home, work at distance. Maybe your future is living in some beautiful rural place. And nonetheless not sacrificing one's career in doing that. Is he getting more international? It seems like, I have friends all over the world now. You don't have to be talking to your neighbors. You can ignore your neighbors and have friends elsewhere.
席勒: 这是一个很大的话题。我对中国房地产市场的看法也不一定权威，这是我们大家看到世界上一个有趣的情况。现在主要的资产类别，股票、债券、房地产都很贵，这反映了一种繁荣，但它又带有害怕的色彩，这是担心困难时期可能到来的预兆。所以人们愿意以高价买入，这种情况不同寻常。房地产泡沫似乎正在形成，过去有很多例子，经济学家普遍认为，房价是由建筑推动的。有那么多土地，即便是在中国或美国，也没有那么贵。如果不是在北京或者深圳，我可以以很便宜的价格建房。曾经人们普遍认为房价是稳定的，而 "房地产泡沫 "这个名词直到21世纪才出现在我们的词汇中，之前从来没有出现过。我现在就可以查一下，美国在19世纪八九十年代，有过一次房地产泡沫。报纸上的一篇文章这样写道：‘我们应该管它叫泡沫吗? 不，我更喜欢用繁荣这个词，因为繁荣没有暗含破灭的意思'。所以他们叫房地产繁荣，而不是房地产泡沫。但是现在我们说房地产泡沫，人们担心房地产泡沫会破灭，尤其现在这种繁重只出现在大城市。虽然在农村可能也会出现，但是不多。现在随着新技术的发展，大城市的主导地位受到挑战，而这也是楼市的另一个不确定因素。现在我们是跨大洋在交流，我们已经不需要生活在大城市。问题是我们是否可以在家办公，我想这是一种趋势，而且我们的生活会变得更加智能。我们在线上见面、开会，和朋友在线上见面。如果是这样的话，大城市的房价就会下降，因为大家不需要住在大城市了。在大城市，你还要面对拥堵的人群和交通，还有空气污染和所有的城市问题。你选择住在大城市，是因为那里的活动，那里的餐厅、博物馆或各种表演等等。但如果因为疫情的原因，你不再享受这些便利，就会对大城市的房价造成影响。我不知道人们对此会作何反应，大城市住房的价格可能会相对有所下降。这要看事情如何发展，人们在家如何工作，如何远距离工作，也许未来你会住在某个美丽的乡村。尽管如此也不会因此而牺牲自己的事业，我们是不是越来越国际化了？现在我的朋友遍布世界各地，你不必和你的邻居说话，你可以忽略你的邻居，在其他地方交朋友。
Zhu Ning: New technology. I think it's not just changing the way how people do business or live their lives. Finance has been heavily influenced by the development of modern technologies. I think in China probably a very booming area in the past few years so called Fintech or Techfin, the hybrid of information technology with traditional financial services were actually the emergence of using modern technology, trying to fill the gaps that's been left by traditional finance. And I think you have talk about this topic at length in your book, New Financial Order. And you have been a strong advocate for trying to use modern technology or financial technology, trying to make financial services available to everyone and trying to help everyone who services. But then I think a big event in China was, you probably have heard that from news is, the IPO of Ant Technology, which is the renamed of Ant Financial was stopped by surprise. Because of concerns with antitrust, or concern with the booming of their loan business without proper regulation. And what's your comment on what's the boundary, or what's the balance between innovation, or Fintech and regulation, and consumer welfare.
朱宁：新技术。我认为它不仅仅改变了人们做生意或生活的方式，金融已经深受现代科技发展的影响。在中国，过去几年里一个蓬勃发展的领域，叫金融科技或者科技金融，是信息技术与传统金融服务的混合体，其实就是利用现代科技的出现，试图填补传统金融留下的空白。而您在《金融新秩序》一书中，已经详细地谈到了这个话题，而且您一直大力提倡使用现代科技或者金融科技，让每个人都能享受到金融服务，帮助每一个它所服务的人。但是后来在中国发生了一件大事，您可能在新闻上看到蚂蚁科技的IPO，也就是原名蚂蚁金融的IPO被突然叫停。因为出于对反垄断的问题的担忧，以及他们“过于“蓬勃发展的贷款业务没有得到适当的监管。您怎么评价创新，或者说金融科技和监管，以及保障消费者福利之间的界限，或者说平衡点是什么。
Robert J. Shiller: You know there is a narrative that Fintech is adding to inequality. And that tends to favor a very tiny fraction of the population, who become a part of an enterprise that is technologically advanced and rapidly growing. It could be right. This is a concern about free enterprise economy that there is nothing in the theory that says there can't be a technological change that would fundamentally alter the distribution of income and leave people behind. I talked about it in my latest book Narrative Economics about how technological innovations awaken fears. So I tried to trace back how long go ahead have people been worrying about technological innovation. And the furthest back, I can really trace it was Aristotle in the 4th century BC. There is a paragraph on one of his books saying that‘if machines come along and replace jobs’. I think is the example of if weaving is done by a machine instead of by hand, that will run the risk of workers becoming useless in fabrics. So this idea has been around a long, long time. I called one of my perennial narratives. But it's been especially strong in the last couple of hundred years as industrial revolution took place. It was particularly important in the 19th century when machines became available that would replace farm labor and the percent of the population, who is engaged in farming, a tiny amount, I think in the United States is around 2% of the working population does farming because machines have taken it over. And more recently, the story has become renamed with the term ‘Artificial Intelligence’. And this is a newly scary story. Fintech is right there up front as part of this story. Now when you're in the stock market, you're not trading with just people, you are trading with computers. A machine learning about your quirks. If they discover that you make some kind of mistake, the machine will go after you and exploit you. So this is a fear that is on people's minds continuously for decades now with artificial intelligence. And it has the potential to explode again and do another epidemic of fear. This epidemic right now is supportive of the stock market. Because people like to buy tech stocks. And it makes them feel that they may be inadequate to participate directly in the technology revolution.
席勒：你知道有一种说法，金融科技正在加剧社会不平等，而这往往有利于极小部分人。他们是技术先进、发展迅速的企业的一部分，这可能是对的。这是对自由企业经济的一种担忧，没有一种理论表示不能出现技术变革，不能从根本上改变收入分配，不能让人们落伍。我在最新出版的《叙事经济学》一书中谈到技术创新如何引发人们的恐惧。追溯历史，人们对技术创新的恐惧古已有之。最久远的，可以追溯到公元前4世纪的亚里士多德。在他的一本书中，有一段话说："如果机器出现并取代了工作"。我想是这样的一个例子，如果机器取代手工织布，那编织工人就会变得无用，所以这个想法已经存在很久很久了。这种担忧一直存在，但在过去的几百年里，随着工业革命的发生，这种担忧越发强烈。特别是在19世纪，机器开始用来取代手工农业劳动。很少的一部分劳动人口，现在美国只有大约2％的劳动人口从事农业工作，这是因为这些工作已经被机器接管。而最近，这个故事的主角被重新命名为 "人工智能"。这是新一轮的恐怖故事。金融科技身为这个故事的一部分，也参与其中。现在，在股票市场上，你不只是在和人交易，你还在和电脑交易，机器在学习你的癖好。如果他们发现你犯了某种错误，机器就会去加以利用。所以这几十年来，人们对人工智能的恐惧日益增强。而且它有可能再次爆发，成为一种流行。现在疫情促进了股市的投资，人们开始投资科技股，这是他们间接参与科技革命的方式。
Zhu Ning: Worth to use certain technology during this pandemic, so providing perfect justification.
朱宁：疫情期间，某些技术的使用是值得的，提供了完美的理由。
Robert J. Shiller: Right. Both US and China have a strong technology sector. This is an important factor in the stock market. But that doesn't explain the housing boom. It’s a little bit difficult. I think that is a generalized fear that make people want to put down roots, have a nice home, worried they will get out of rich for them.
席勒: 是的。美国和中国都有强大的科技行业，这是股市的一个重要因素。但这并不能解释房地产市场的繁荣，这有点困难。我认为这是一种普遍的恐惧心理，让人们想扎下根来有一个好的房子，自己会因此而富起来。
Zhu Ning: Talking about the poor and the rich, I think one thing is probably close to certain, that is the inequality in wealth distribution has become even worse over the pandemic. I think that's probably the case in China and the US.
朱宁:说到穷人和富人，我想有一件事是可以肯定的。就是在疫情爆发后，财富分配的不平等变得更加严重了。我认为中国和美国的情况都是这样。
Robert J. Shiller: Right. The pain of suffering in the epidemic is related to your economic status. If you can't afford to pay for deliveries, or if you can't afford to pay extra health bills. You are in trouble. You might be living in crowded conditions where there is too many people around so you can't isolate.
席勒:没错。应对疫情的能力与一个人的经济地位有关。如果一个人付不起外送费用，或者一个人付不起额外的医疗费用，这个人有麻烦了。他可能生活在人群密集的环境中，周围有很多人无法做到隔离。
Zhu Ning: I know in your book New Financial Order, you have come up with financial innovation trying to reduce the income or wealth inequality. But then I think the west society have been trying to do this for the past few decades, but as we have witness, I think the income and wealth inequality have become worse. And that's creating all sorts of social and political problems. And especially coupled with the pandemics. What would you recommend if you have something that governments or the policy makers trying to consider, trying to solve, or at least alleviate this problem of income inequality?
朱宁：我知道在你的《金融新秩序》一书中，你提出了金融创新，试图减少收入或财富的不平等。但是我认为西方社会在过去几十年里一直在努力尝试，但是我们看到的是收入和财富的不平等愈发严重，这就造成了各种各样的社会问题和政治问题。尤其再加上疫情的影响，你对政府，或者政策制定者有什么建议，如何解决，或至少减轻收入不平等的问题？
Robert J. Shiller: I wish I were more of a politician. I have written books and relieving these things. There's a lot of different aspects to it. For example, a lot of people worry about housing. And they are following the housing market with apprehension. So there could be contracts that protect them against lose. We actually work with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to create a futures market for single family homes. This aggregated by regions. This might become a new form of gambling playing in the futures market. But it hasn't. It's not a big success. People are not used to hedging their risks in the housing market. Another thing is that the risk of livelihoods are not really managed by modern financial or insurance technology. So I was thinking, in the futuristic term, I’m not limited by what is already been done. I was thinking of institutions that would provide home equity insurance against collapses in the housing market. Or new kinds of mortgages that would protect people against changes in housing prices. This is part of the indebtedness we've already mentioned. People borrow a lot of money to buy a house, and the loan is not contingent on home prices. So if home prices drop, there's an economic contraction. You might find it difficult in default. That's what happened in the 2009 crisis. There were mortgage default. So you think it would be more creative thinking. But I think about how to change the mortgage. But that's not something that happens fast, unfortunately in history. There has been the so called shared appreciation mortgages that we tried out over the last 20 years that would take some of the risk of home prices, but they haven’t flourished. I think that there could be more general insurance and livelihood insurance that protect you against. It should be the same spirit that we do for entrepreneurship. Inventions could apply to individual entrepreneurship. You could insure a few. They start to see this. You have companies who teach you computer skills. And you don’t pay them until later. And if you don't get a job as a computer expert, your tuition is waived. This is an interesting development.
席勒：我也希望我是一个政治家。我的书里写到如何缓解贫富差距，可以有很多不同的举措。比如说，很多人担心的住房问题。人们怀着忐忑的心情关注着房市，所以可以有一些合同保护他们不受损失。其实我和芝加哥商品交易所有合作，建立了一个按地区分部的独栋住宅的期货市场。这可能会成为期货市场上的一种新玩法，但它并没有成功。人们不习惯于在房地产市场对冲风险。另外，民生的风险没有真正的用现代金融或者保险技术来管理，所以我在想，未来有可能的话，不局限于现在已经做的事情，可以有机构提供房屋资产保险防止房地产市场崩盘。或者新型抵押贷款，保护人们不受房价变化的影响。这就是我们国家提到的资产负债的一部分。人们借了很多钱去买房子，而贷款是不以房价波动而变化的。如果房价下跌，就会出现经济萎缩，人们很难不违约。2009年的经济危机就是这样，出现了房贷违约，所以需要有更多的创新思维。我想的是如何改变抵押贷款，但这不是马上就能做到的，历史上也是一样。在过去的20年里，我们一直在尝试所谓的共享增值抵押贷款，可以承担一些房价的风险，但是它们并没有蓬勃发展。我认为可以多一些一般性的保险和民生保险，保护人们的利益，这和我们对创业的态度是一样的。发明可以用于个人创业，人们可以多重保险。现在已经有类似的创新，有的公司教人们电脑技术，之后才付费。如果没有找到计算机相关的工作，学费就免了，这是一个有趣的发展。
Zhu Ning: The imbedded option.
朱宁：嵌入式的选项。
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, I think that these things tend to grow. I think that career insurance is really an important thing that would make people be more willing to take risks with their careers. Right now a lot of people all go for the same MBA, Masters of Business Administration, which is a good thing, by the way.
席勒：是的，我认为这些东西会越来越多。我认为职业保险真是一个很重要的东西，会让人们更愿意为自己的职业发展承担风险。现在很多人都去读MBA，工商管理硕士，这是好事。
Zhu Ning: By the way, I have been a Professor before.
朱宁：对了，我以前当过MBA讲师。
Robert J. Shiller: There is a sense that finance jobs are not as lucrative as it used to be. Commissions are coming down. So it's hard to make money in the traditional way in finance. So I think we could improve our institutions and gradually we are, things are happening. We will make our risk management better. And risk management is critical, saying Covid19 is substantially evolved with our economic fortunes. And the spread of that disease is higher in poor sections. So we have to. It is a big problem, but we don't talk much to epidemiologist as economist. If you ask me to make a forecast now, I feel kind of helpless cause I’m not an epidemiologist. That's a specialty that economists don’t share.
席勒:现在的感觉是金融业的工作不像以前那么赚钱了。佣金在下降，所以很难用金融的传统方式赚钱。我认为我们需要改善制度，而这些改变正在逐渐发生。我们国家需要加强风险管理，风险管理至关重要，疫情在很大程度上是受经济环境影响的。这种疾病在贫困地区的传播率更高，所以我们必须做出改变，这是个大问题。但作为经济学家，我和流行病学家沟通不多。如果你让我现在做出预测，我觉得有点困难，因为我不是流行病学家，这不是经济学家的专长。
Zhu Ning: Right, and this is something I want to ask but probably you have thought about it. You forecast about how quickly the virous will kick in and keep the pandemic situation under control given the vaccines.
朱宁:对，这是我想问的问题，不过你可能也预料到了。你预测病毒会以多快的速度爆发，并在疫苗的帮助下控制疫情？
Robert J. Shiller: Well, that has been an important boost to the world stock market. Because people think long term. They've been trained to do that. And they think they going to get a vaccine, and this whole thing will disappear. So why shouldn’t I buy a home for a few years in the stock market? It seems inevitable. With our learning experience, the drop in February and March of this year in stock prices. Especially in the West, which haven’t had a SARS epidemic, they are not used to wearing face masks. They are embarrassed to go out public with this funny mask on. So they don't do it. But they had to learn that there are pandemic, and they do end. In past pandemic, stock markets haven’t reacted that much. In 1918, there was a worldwide influenza epidemic. It did create a recession, but only a mild recession. And you don't see it very much in stock. When I look at the US stock market in 1918, it ended up lower but not a crash. But by 1920, it was very low.
席勒:疫情对全球股市来说是一个重要的推动。因为人们总是着眼长期，我们就是被这样训练的。人们认为总会有疫苗，疫情就会消失。那么我为什么不可以在股票市场上投资呢? 这似乎不可避免。根据我们的经验，今年2月和3月股价下跌，特别是在没有经历过SARS疫情的西方国家，人们不习惯戴口罩。他们认为戴着口罩出现在公共场合非常滑稽，所以他们不愿意戴口罩。但他们必须知道，疫情正在蔓延。在过去的流感大流行中，股市的反应没有那么强烈。1918年，世界范围内爆发了流行性感冒。它确实造成了经济衰退，但是非常轻微，股票市场的反应也不大。当我回顾1918年的美国股市时，它虽然有所下跌，但没有崩盘。但到了1920年，股市变得非常低迷。
Zhu Ning: Afterwards, big run up before the greatest depression, they triggered people’s reaction after the influenza in 1918.
朱宁：市场反应滞后，大萧条之前经济大涨，1918年流感延迟引发了市场反应。
Robert J. Shiller: The stock market boom began after the influenza epidemic in past. And so is the new world with optimistic sense. You can tell story about the roaring twenties and high appreciation of stock market over that period.
席勒：过去，流感疫情发生后股市开始繁荣。现在，人们也是同样的乐观，如同轰轰烈烈的20年代股市市值飙升高升值时候。
Zhu Ning: But one thing was very clear this year, both in China and the US, the number of retail investors have increased by wide margin during the course of the pandemics. Do you think that's because of the fear of missing out? Or it's because of the subsidies given out from the government, or because people were so bored quarantine at home.
朱宁：但今年有一点非常明显，无论是在中国还是美国，散户的数量在疫情期间都有较大幅度的增长。你觉得是因为怕错过时机吗，还是因为政府发放的补贴？或者是因为人们隔离在家太无聊了？
Robert J. Shiller: This is all part of my theory. I’ve noticed personally. I have a financial markets free course online. And my number of students soared during the quarantine period. I’m getting emails from some of my students, there is nothing to do. And the financial markets are wild. This is time to learn about finance. I still think it's a good career to go into, if you like that kind of thing. Some of the best careers are oversubscribed, like neuroscientists. That’s an exciting field. When I visited a neuroscience conference, someone said to me, ‘this is a really exciting field, but the problem is too many young people who are going to it’. There aren’t enough jobs for researches in neuroscience.
席勒: 我理论中也有讲到这些。我也注意到了，我在网上有一个金融市场的免费课程，而我的学生数量在隔离期间猛增。我收到一些学生发来的邮件，他们在家无所事事。而现在的金融市场表现疯狂，这正是学习金融知识的时候。我还是认为这是一个很好的职业，如果你喜欢这些东西，有些行业已经饱和，比如神经科学家，这是一个令人兴奋的领域。有一次我参加一个神经科学会议，有人对我说，‘这是一个非常令人兴奋的领域，但问题是这个领域的年轻人太多'，而神经科学的研究工作岗位没有那么多。
Zhu Ning: Also talking about investment for education or just investment itself. It seems that people are either more interest in or are forced to take out more leverage or more debt. The level of leverage has increased tremendously considerably this year for most countries. And China was no exception. I think the national level of a better GDP ratio increased by about 40 percentage points, which make China one of the most heavily indebted country in the world, probably next to Japan. There are very diverging views on this topic. Some feel that this is potential systemic risk to China's economy going forward, whereas others feel that many of debt were used for infrastructure, for technology innovation. And so that should be sustainable growth. Could you share some of your insights about this topic?
朱宁：说到教育投资，或者说投资本身。人们要么追加投资，要么被迫采取更多的杠杆或承担更多的债务。今年大多数国家的杠杆率水平都有很大的提高，中国也不例外。我认为国家层面，表现比较好的GDP占比增加了40个百分点左右，这使得中国成为世界上负债最重的国家之一，可能仅次于日本。对于这个问题，大家的看法分作两极。有的人认为这是中国经济未来潜在的系统性风险；而有的人则认为这些债务是用于投资基础设施、技术创新的，所以增长是可持续的。您能不能分享一下您对这个话题的一些看法？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the rise of debt was also a very important concern in 1929. People were buying stocks on margin before the 1929 crash. You could get a loan then to buy a 90% of the value of your stock market investment. And there was a lot of talk about. I've done searches about that. In 1929, when the market dropped in one day, people thought the end is near. That indebtedness narrative became very strong. So it’s with us again today. But I think, again, it is kind of preexisting condition. We are a little bit fear for this situation. But nobody can prove that it's going to result in a crash. And even if it does, people will think it will come backup. But I think it's a preexisting condition in the sense that if something else hits the market. Then people will think that it's maybe the indebtedness did it and markets will come down. So that is a concern.
席勒：是的，债务的上升在1929年也是一个非常严重的问题。在1929年股灾之前，人们都是用保证金购买股票。人们可以用贷款购买90%的股票投资价值，当时就有很多争议。我做过相关调查，在1929年，当股票在一天内暴跌时，人们认为末日即将来临。人们对负债的恐惧非常强烈。今天它又出现了。但是我觉得，这只是一种先决条件，我们对于这种情况是有点恐惧的。但是没有人能够证明，它一定会导致崩盘。而且即使崩盘，股市也会重启。但是，如果有其他因素冲击市场，这是一个既存条件。那么人们就会认为可能是负债导致的股票下跌。所以这是一种担忧。
Zhu Ning: Probably my last question for you today is about the important topic of US China relationship. With the two largest economies, the two largest countries in the world and with a new election results, and a new president coming into office in a few months, many were hopeful that the relationship between US and China will probably improve in the next few years. And a specific area that's concerning Chinese or Chinese companies is the recent investigation on the possibility of banning Chinese companies listing their shares in the US if certain requirements were not met? I think I probably know your political views all along going forward. What do you think the narrative would become in the US China relationship and also the trade tension, and also the economic, the collaboration in economy and in technology, and in certain other areas such as national security.
朱宁：我今天的最后一个问题是关于中美关系这个重要议题。中美是世界上最大的两个经济体，最大的两个国家，而且随着新的选举结果的产生，还有几个月，新的总统即将上任，很多人都希望未来几年中美关系可能会有所改善。最近发生的一些关于中国人或者中国企业的调查，如果不符合某些要求，可能会禁止中国企业在美国上市？我想我大概知道您一直以来的政治观点。您认为中美关系中，中美的贸易紧张，还有中美经济，中美经济和技术的合作，还有其他某些领域，比如说国家安全，会有什么样的变化？
Robert J. Shiller: It's unfortunate that there is antagonist under the Trump administration, and the antagonist relation with China that develop. I have long thought China’s development is benefiting the world, and not being a problem. But Donald Trump took one of his advisers Peter Navarro, who wrote a book called Death by China. I thought it was really over the top. I looked at the book. It was blaming China for all of our mortalities. So I guess when people are worried inequality is widening. They want to see someone to blame for. And it was both Mexico and China that got a lot of blame. Mexico for sending a lot of workers over, competing for your job, and China for sending a lot of goods over. It is remarkable how many things we have that are from China, is all the time. Our prosperity has been developed by China. But the narrative reacted against that. I think Biden would be much better than Trump. I don't know. I can't predict what he will do. But there is a fundamental difference. Biden is a kindhearted man who is effusive in his human settlement. And whereas Trump seem to be angry. He punches, shouts, and he is angry all the time. I don’t think that’s good for international relations. I am hoping for a better, where we could partner together more. And someone could live in China and work in US. Or the other way around. All those things could happen. I’m not optimistic for the stock market of the world. (phone interfere)
席勒：很不幸，在特朗普政府的领导下，中美关系变得对立。我一直认为中国的发展是造福世界的，而不是制造问题。但是特朗普受其顾问彼得-纳瓦罗的影响，这个人写了一本书名为《致命中国》，里面的内容太夸张了。我看了这本书，它把很多原因都归咎于中国。当不平等变得愈发严重，他们开始寻求“替罪羊”，那就是墨西哥和中国。墨西哥派遣了大量的工人，和美国人争夺工作，而中国出口了太多货物。一直以来，我们用的很多东西是中国制造，这很了不起。中国的发展促进了我们的繁荣，但是特朗普政府反其道而行之。我认为拜登会比特朗普好很多，我不确定。我无法预测未来他会做什么，但有一个根本的区别。拜登是一个心地善良的人，他心怀感激。而特朗普看起来总是很愤怒，他总是拳打脚踢，大喊大叫，一直在生气，我不认为这对国际关系有好处。我希望有一个更好的发展，我们可以有更多的合作。有人可以住在中国，在美国工作；或者反过来。所有这些事情都可能发生，尽管我对世界股市并不乐观。
Zhu Ning: And do you have anything else you want to say to the Chinese audience for the upcoming 2021? I know you are optimistic about US China relationship, less so about US stock market?
朱宁：对于即将到来的2021年，您还有什么想对中国观众说的吗？我知道您对中美关系比较乐观，对美国股市不太乐观？
Robert J. Shiller: Yeah, the US stock market is not horrible compared to the bond market. We have ‘excess KPO’, which is the inverse CAPE ratio minus the interest rate. And the excess KPO is around 4% in the US. 4% a year for long term. The stock market should still outperform fixed income investments. It's just not as dramatic as it has been. In history, the stock market is often a get rich quick investment, like it tripled in values over the last ten years. It then turns a little bit. You never know exactly when. I don't object to investing in the US stock market, but I think we should be more diversified,
across stock prices, real estate. Even real estate investments are okay. The best thing you can do is diversify.
席勒：是的，和债券市场相比，美国股市还好。美国的‘超额KPO'，也就是CAPE比率减去利率得到的数字是4%左右。长期来看每年4%，股市的表现应该还是比固定收益投资要，只是没有以前那么好了。在历史上，股市往往是一种快速致富的投资方式，比如过去十年股市价值翻了三倍之后就会迎来拐点，你永远不知道具体是什么时候。我不反对投资美国股市，但是我觉得投资应该更加多元化，包括股票，房地产等等。投资房地产也是可以的，最好的办法就是多元投资。
Zhu Ning: Thank you so much for your time and for your insightful comments. I wish you a good day and a great new year.
朱宁：非常感谢您的时间，也感谢您的精辟回答。祝您新年快乐！
Robert J. Shiller: My pleasure, thank you.
席勒: 我的荣幸，谢谢。
