新股高价发行 机构难脱干系

2010年02月11日 02:30
来源：中国证券网－上海证券报

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⊙周丽华

昨日挂牌交易的齐星铁塔在开盘后也出现了击穿发行价走势，多数观点认为新股发行价过高是近期新股持续破发的诱因。按照目前的新股发行制度，新股往往是通过询价机制进行定价的，询价对象主要是基金等机构资金。而机构资金在询价过程中的出价又与机构研究报告所给出的新股定位存在着一定的关联，因此，有观点认为新股发行价过高或与机构报告给出的预测价格有着一定的联系。

这也得到了2009年12月以来新股申购前机构询价或估值统计结果的佐证，因为新股最终发行价与机构定位存在着正态分布特征。不难看出，去年12月份以来发行的87只新股中，发行价与机构平均定位之间差异在5%之内的个股达到27家，占31%，差异在10%以内的个股则为46家，占比为53%，只有3只新股发行价较平均定价差距在20%以上。如此数据一方面说明了机构定位较高程度“左右”了最终发行价格的设定，另一方面也表明了机构定位与新股高发行市盈率、高发行价之间存在着极大关联。

现在的问题是，为什么一向崇尚价值投资理念的机构研究报告会给予新股如此高的发行市盈率呢？比如金龙机电、世纪鼎利的发行市盈率均超过了100倍。而多年来的A股市场走势显示，大盘平均市盈率一旦超过60倍，就是高寒区域了，所以机构的新股定位报告近期受到了市场质疑。对此，有两个因素或可予以考虑：一是市场平均市盈率虽然60倍已是高寒区域了，但对于小盘股来说，A股市场历来赋予较高市盈率，而且部分小盘新股或者具有相对独特的资质。二是目前新股的市场化发行意味着新股定位可以直接参照二级市场，也就是说，是目前整个A股市场的高估值抬升了新股发行价。

但不管怎样，未来新股发行价格有望出现一定程度的回落。一方面是因为新股的持续破发会下移新股发行价格，会影响着机构报告的心理价格预期。另一方面则是因为前期A股市场的回落使得新股发行价格的参照品种的估值重心也有所下移，所以未来新股发行价格或将更趋于理性。

2009年12月以来新股申购前机构询价或估值情况一览(制表：上海聚源数据)

股票股票机构定价平均定价机构定价平均定价机构平均最终发行较平均定发行股票股票机构定价平均定价机构定价平均定价机构平均最终发行较平均定发行

代码名称最低(元)下限(元)最高(元)上限(元)定价(元)价(元)价(%)市盈率代码名称最低(元)下限(元)最高(元)上限(元)定价(元)价(元)价(%)市盈率

002326永太科技16.2524.4639.2027.5325.9920.00-23.0664.52601299中国北车5.005.738.346.606.175.56-9.8749.21

002362汉王科技34.3652.3165.0056.0454.1741.90-22.6668.69002344海宁皮城15.3720.7931.3523.5222.1520.00-9.7369.33

002325洪涛股份20.2532.5051.5936.7234.6127.00-21.9965.85002332仙琚制药5.508.4814.599.679.078.20-9.6345.56

300036超图软件16.4222.7442.4125.9324.3419.60-19.4681.67300051三五互联28.2034.8345.0040.4037.6234.00-9.6265.38

601139深圳燃气6.258.0714.009.148.616.95-19.2549.64300034钢研高纳13.2020.2235.0022.9821.6019.53-9.5875.12

002330得利斯9.6015.1523.1117.3716.2613.18-18.9350.69300038梅泰诺17.8127.4743.0029.6728.5726.00-8.9861.90

002361神剑股份13.8019.9837.2021.6920.8317.00-18.4136.17002324普利特15.4023.0642.7526.3824.7222.50-8.9786.54

300031宝通带业28.0043.4875.0049.5246.5038.00-18.2862.30601117中国化学4.385.6511.646.215.935.43-8.3745.25

002350北京科锐22.2027.5538.0030.6529.1024.00-17.5245.28300045华力创通23.0431.2348.0035.6433.4430.70-8.1876.75

002340格林美23.0036.3350.0040.9438.6332.00-17.1778.05002346柘中建设14.7820.0229.8522.7521.3919.90-6.9558.19.

002338奥普光电16.1924.4740.0028.5626.5122.00-17.0250.00002359齐星铁塔12.5017.1124.1519.0818.1016.98-6.1754.77

300050世纪鼎利77.5796.96167.00114.74105.8588.00-16.86123.94002358森源电气20.5025.8938.1529.5027.7026.00-6.1254.17

002342巨力索具20.0027.3236.0030.3628.8424.00-16.7855.81002349精华制药15.5719.7728.0822.3121.0419.80-5.9073.33

300052中青宝22.8034.5445.0037.4335.9830.00-16.6393.75002345潮宏基26.0032.6347.8737.4935.0633.00-5.8879.17

002335科华恒盛25.0030.6646.6934.6832.6727.35-16.2852.60300046台基股份29.7040.7166.0046台6343.6741.30-5.4266.61

300029天龙光电13.1720.0332.0023.4021.7218.18-16.2862.69300049福瑞股份18.5028.4748.2032.7930.6328.98-5.3882.80

002318久立特材18.0025.9134.6528.9627.4323.00-16.1546.00002337赛象科技25.0830.1443.0035.1232.6331.00-4.9951.67

002343禾欣股份21.0034.0856.0039.6836.8831.00-15.9470.45002354科冕木业9.7012.0319.3513.9212.9812.33-4.9856.05

300042朗科科技19.8441.6282.8050.4646.0439.00-15.2976.47002336人人乐20.0026.4646.3029.9828.2226.98-4.4049.050.

002347泰尔重工17.0024.8939.0028.1826.5422.50-15.2244.12002360同德化工19.7823.9929.1026.1625.0723.98-4.3632.85

300035中科电气28.8438.9960.0045.7642.3736.00-15.0459.02300043星辉车模23.0043星1570.0048.7345.9443.98-4.2691.49

002321华英农业12.3018.8227.4020.9519.8816.98-14.5958.55300044赛为智能15.9021.4837.0024.3522.9122.00-3.9981.4837.

002329皇氏乳业14.8021.8536.6025.1323.4920.10-14.4367.00300058蓝色光标22.0033.0145.0037.3235.1633.86-3.7167.72

300041回天胶业26.6039.5265.0045.4842.5036.40-14.3567.41300057万顺股份13.6517.7724.3020.2619.0118.38-3.3265.64

300032金龙机电9.5020.3034.3124.0222.1619.00-14.25126.67002341新纶科技16.5022.0733.0025.4823.7723.00-3.2563.36

002328新朋股份17.0520.5931.0024.5222.5619.38-14.0851.00300055万邦达51.2563.0990.0072.6667.8765.69-3.2271.40

002339积成电子20.0027.4935.0330.0228.7625.00-13.0760.98601268二重重装5.908.0411.909.528.788.50-3.2240.48

002319乐通股份9.5014.9925.0016.4915.7413.70-12.9548.75300037新宙邦17.2527.6050.0031.9029.7528.99-2.56111.5014.

002331皖通科技22.2328.8446.0033.0430.9427.00-12.7358.52601801皖新传媒9.2011.3718.0012.7912.0811.80-2.2842.56

002351漫步者28.5636.3246.7540.2938.3033.50-12.5476.14002355兴民钢圈10.2013.7321.6015.7414.7314.50-125958.002351漫步

002334英威腾41.0052.0568.0057.5954.8248.00-12.4478.69002356浩宁达26.7335.5655.0038.5537.0636.50-1.5063.81

002317众生药业43.4059.7393.0065.6162.6755.00-12.2463.44300048合康变频23.2332.3850.0036.4534.4234.16-0.75106.95

601179中国西电6.408.2913.309.648.977.90-11.8934.17300054鼎龙股份22.1028.9637.9632.5030.7330.55-0.5989.85

601106中国一重4.505.939.806.906.415.70-11.1241.22780688华泰申购15.3020.4826.7023.7622.1222.00-0.5332.35

002357富临运业13.4015.8622.0017.8316.8414.97-11.1242.29002323中联电气19.0027.9239.0631.6629.7930.000.7143.622.

300040九洲电气20.8034.7855.6039.3637.0733.00-10.9768.75300056三维丝14.4019.4926.8023.1421.3221.591.29102.81

002320海峡股份20.1836.0253.0039.2137.6133.60-10.6747.32002352鼎泰新材17.5029.5241.6033.4031.4632.001.7165.88

002322理工监测29.0542.0872.7747.4144.7540.00-10.6159.85300039上海凯宝22.2535.5557.0239.0137.2838.001.9482.6159.

002333罗普斯金17.8023.2434.4925.9524.5922.00-10.5462.80300030阳普医疗16.002334240.0025.2524.3325.002373108.70

002353杰瑞股份43.0763.3697.9269.5866.4759.50-10.4981.78300053欧比特12.0015.4922.2817.5616.5217.00238873.873.

300033同花顺40.2856.4185.0061.5558.9852.80-10.4892.57601877正泰电器16.2521.8934.0024.6923.2923.982.9761.49

780678滨化申购13.8019.9625.7622.4221.1919.00-10.3438.00300047天源迪科20.7026.7745.003009928.8830.00308678.95

002327富安娜23.0031.3447.0035.2933.3130.00-9.9446.88601989中国重工4.146.5010.007.617.057.384.6242.146.

002348高乐股份16.0022.9832.9025.8224.4021.98-9.9370.90

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