Pork in China

中国猪肉

Year of the golden pig

猪年猪贵

Jun 7th 2007  From The Economist print edition

Why are prices soaring?

猪肉价格为何飞涨？

WHILE many China-watchers fret about the consequences of a collapse of China's stockmarket, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, seems more worried about the risk of social unrest as a result of the rocketing price of pork. A 50% rise in the average nationwide price over the past year is causing squeals of alarm. Last week Mr Wen went so far as to visit a farm to show he is taking the issue seriously.

正当中国众多观察家都为中国股市一旦崩盘后果不堪设想而忧心忡忡之时，中国总理温家宝却似乎更担心猪肉价格暴涨可能会造成社会不稳定。过去一年全国肉价50%的增长水平不能不让人警惕。上周，温家宝首次视察一家农场，表明他对这一问题非常重视。

Mr Wen promised that the government would act to ensure adequate supplies of pork; if necessary, to stabilise prices it can release stocks from its strategic reserves of both frozen pork and live pigs. Pork is China's staple meat. The average person eats more pork than in any country other than Germany. But it accounts for almost 4% of China's consumer-price basket, against less than 1% in Germany. Rising pork prices could therefore push up China's inflation rate over coming months. Jiming Ha, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation, estimates that inflation will rise to 3.4% in May, from 3% in April.

温家宝表示，政府会采取措施，确保猪肉的足量供应；必要时还可动用战略储备库存中的冻猪肉和生猪来平抑肉价。猪肉是中国的主要肉食品，该国人均猪肉消费量比除德国外的任何一个国家都要多，而猪肉在中国占菜篮子总价近4%，而在德国却不到1%。因此，未来几个月里猪肉价格的上涨会造成中国通胀率的上升。据中国国际金融有限公司（China International Capital Corporation）首席经济学家哈继明（音）估计，通胀率将从4月份的3%升至5月份的3.4%。

Economists are scratching their heads to explain the price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may have killed 18,000 or 20m pigs, depending on whom you believe. Others say the main cause is the surge in global grain prices, which have increased the cost of feed for pigs. It is not only the Chinese who are paying more for their pork. Capital Economics, a London-based economics firm, points out that American pork prices have also jumped by more than 50% over the past year.

肉价暴涨让经济学家们百思不得其解。有些人将其归咎于蓝耳朵病，这是一种传染性疾病，有人说已有18000头猪死于此病，也有人说死了2000万头，莫衷一是。另有一些人认为主要原因是全球谷物价格的猛增拉高了养猪成本。“吃肉贵”的还不仅仅是中国人，据伦敦一家经济学公司Capital Economics称，过去一年美国的肉价涨幅也超过了50%。

Economists, however, may recall the old “hog cycle” that they learnt about in their first year of economics. This explains why prices in certain markets are subject to periodic booms and busts, because of a lag between the response in production to a change of price. Chinese pork prices today are not much higher than at their peak in 2004. High prices then prompted farmers to produce more, and prices fell sharply for two years. That in turn discouraged farmers from raising pigs. The inevitable result was today's higher prices, which will probably lead to glut and falling prices tomorrow. Pigs may fly. But not forever.

但是，也许经济学家还记得刚接触经济学时学到的“猪循环（hog cycle）”理论。这一理论解释了某一市场的物价为何受到周期性繁荣与萧条的影响——因为生产对价格变化的反应总是滞后的。与2004年猪肉价格最高时相比，中国现在的肉价并没有高出很多。当时的高价推动农民提高了肉产量，随后两年肉价便急剧下降，如此一来农民养猪的积极性也随之减弱。这就不可避免地引起了今天肉价的上扬，而今后猪肉也可能会供应过剩，价格又降下来。猪能“升天”，但终会“降落”。

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