Aug 9th 2007 From The Economist print edition

Despite the recent turbulence in the credit markets, the Federal Reserve holds fire on interest rates

尽管最近信贷市场出现了波动，美联储仍不准备采取行动改变利率

CALL a man like Ben Bernanke a pushover and you deserve a punch on the jaw. With a calm resolution that is beginning to mark his tenure, the Federal Reserve chief and his colleagues left America's benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% after a meeting on August 7th and gave little indication that they were minded to cut rates in the near future.

将本·伯南克视为容易受影响的人等于在老虎钳上打洞（这句话谁能帮忙修改一下）。作为其任期的标志，美联储主席和他的同事们作出了一个冷静的决定。在8月7日的会议之后，他们决定维持美国的基准利率在5.25%不变，并给出了轻微的暗示表示有可能在不远的将来采取降息措施。

The Fed acknowledged in a statement that financial markets had been volatile, that credit conditions had tightened (if only for “some” households and businesses) and that core inflation had “improved modestly”. But it stressed that America's economy was still on course for moderate growth, albeit with greater downside risks, and that inflation remains the main policy concern.

美联储在声明中承认了金融市场已经处于动荡之中，（对某些置业者和企业而言）贷款条件已经收紧，核心通胀率有所改善。但它强调，虽然衰退的风险加大，美国经济仍处于适度增长中，通货膨胀仍然是货币政策首要关心的问题。

Hopes of a bigger shift in tone, paving the way for a cut in interest rates later this year, were firmly dashed. Before the Fed's statement, a cut by the end of the year had been fully priced into financial markets, with another expected by March. Once the market had digested the Fed's stance, it was only marginally less optimistic about the likelihood of lower rates. But by stressing that policy will respond to economic developments, the Fed seemed at pains to quash any notion that it would ease policy to shore up financial markets.

对政策有较大转变，并在今年晚些时候开始降息的期望变得渺茫了。在美联储的声明之前，金融市场已经预期将在年底之前降息，就像三月份的那次一样。一旦市场消化了联储的表态，那么对降低利率的预期将变得谨慎起来。但是通过强调货币政策应对应经济发展，看起来联储正努力平息任何他们将通过放松政策来支持金融市场的观念。

If asset-market squalls do not merit a monetary response, worries about the wider impact of the housing slump on America's economy may yet tip the balance. The downturn in the homebuilding industry has shaved nearly a percentage point off GDP growth in the past year, but the curtailment of new supply has not been enough to restore balance to the housing market. The stock of lived-in houses for sale is already close to a 15-year high. The overhang of unsold homes is likely to grow, as more and more cheap introductory mortgages are reset to higher rates. Rising debt costs could force many overstretched homeowners to default and their lenders to foreclose.

如果资本市场的呼声没有得到货币政策的响应，对房屋市场衰退将更大范围地影响美国经济的担心就会站到上风。建筑业的下滑已经导致了去年GDP增速下降1个百分点，但新增供应的减少仍不足以维持楼市的供需平衡。待售住宅的数量已经接近15年来的最高点。而由于越来越多的廉价抵押贷款改为更高的利率，未出售的房屋仍在增加。升高的债务成本迫使许多贷款期限过长者放弃履约，借贷者从而收回这些房屋。

Worryingly, the effects of the housing slump may be spreading. Consumer spending rose at an annualised rate of 1.3% in the second quarter, the smallest increase since the end of 2005. Car sales fell again in July and business surveys point to a recent softening of growth, particularly in services.

令人担忧的是，楼市衰退的影响将扩散开来。第二季度消费支出的年增长率只有1.3%，是2005年末以来的最低值。汽车销售在7月份回落，商业调查也显示最近的增长放缓，尤其在服务业。

Weaker activity is starting to affect the job market too. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% last month was significant, says Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, because it was entirely due to job losses, rather than an influx of jobseekers or a rise in the number leaving work voluntarily.

商业活动的变缓开始影响就业市场。高盛的Jan Hatzius说，上个月失业率攀升到4.6%是一个显着的信号，因为这完全是由于就业机会减少所导致的，而不是想工作的人或是自愿离职者增加的原因。

When demand stumbles, price pressures are likely to ease too. However, the recent bad news for America's economy might not be good news for inflation.

虽然，需求下降也会导致价格压力降低。但最近这些对美国经济而言的坏消息却不一定有利于控制通货膨胀。

A lot depends on how revisions to GDP are judged. Late last month America's official statisticians cut their estimates of GDP growth by an average of 0.3 percentage points a year for the three years to 2006. These downgrades were incorporated this week into lower estimates for productivity growth and higher readings for unit labour costs, which rose by an alarming 4.5% in the year to the second quarter.

很多事情依赖于如何判断GDP的修正。上个月末，美国官方统计学家修正了他们对2004-2006这三年的GDP增长率的估算，平均每年下降了0.3%。这些下降将在本周合并并导致生产率增长的下降和单位劳动成本的上升，该成本到今年上半年为止已经令人警惕的增长了4.5%。

Downward revisions to GDP and productivity could imply that the economy's safe speed limit has dropped and that the short-term trade-off between output growth and inflation, already afflicted by high oil prices, had worsened. Strong growth in unit wage costs against the backdrop of a tight-looking jobs market might limit the Fed's scope for rate cuts.

对GDP和生产率的向下修正可能意味着经济增长速度的安全极限已经下降。已饱受高油价之苦的产出增长和通胀之间的短期平衡可能会变得更糟。在形势严峻的就业市场背景下，单位工资成本的强劲增长可能会限制联储降低利率的力度。

Equally, however, the GDP revisions imply that there is less momentum behind the growth in demand. The downgrade was due mainly to lower growth in consumer spending. Stubbornly low unemployment, weak productivity growth and accelerating unit wage costs may simply be the results of firms' holding on to workers while demand is weak. David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch points out that there was a similar surge in unit wage costs at the end of 2000, on the eve of recession and big rate cuts.

但同时，GDP增长率的向下修正也意味着需求增长的动力在减弱。下滑主要是因为消费支出增长放缓。难以降低的失业率，低生产率增长和单位工资成本快速增加可能是公司在需求降低时维持员工的结果。美林银行的David Rosenberg指出，在2000年底的衰退和大规模下调利率之前，也曾有过类似的单位工资成本大幅上扬。

If the Fed is inching closer to a neutral policy stance, other central banks are still looking to raise interest rates to temper growth and curb inflation. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on August 2nd that “strong vigilance” was required to keep inflation in check. This was a signal that the ECB is poised to increase its benchmark interest rate from 4% to 4.25% at its next meeting on September 6th. The Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report, released on August 8th, hinted that Britain's central bank may tighten the screw once more.

如果联储继续缓慢的向中立立场靠近，其他央行看来仍会提升利率来调节经济过热和抑制通胀。欧洲央行总裁特里谢8月2日说，对通货膨胀仍需保持高度的警惕。这是被认为是欧央行将在9月6日的会议后将基准利率由4%调高到4.25%的一个信号。英格兰央行于8月8日发表的季度通胀报告也暗示英格兰央行会再次收紧货币政策。

Although the ECB and the Bank of England have sounded sanguine about tightening credit, central bankers are not entirely unperturbed. On August 9th, following a sudden liquidity squeeze and a spike in interbank lending rates, the ECB injected [Euro]94.8 billion ($131 billion) in a special refinancing operation.

虽然欧央行和英格兰银行看来会继续收紧信贷，央行们其实也并不完全是如此坚定。8月9日，面对突然的来临的流动性紧张和银行隔夜拆借率的陡然提升，欧洲央行采取特别操作投放了948亿欧元（1310亿美元）进行干预。

Nonetheless, the global economy is still strong. Indeed, America has the weakest year-on-year growth rate of the 42 economies listed in the weekly indicators of The Economist. Emerging-market economies are growing rapidly and—in contrast to 1998, when the Fed was forced to cut rates by global market turmoil—are self-insured against the vagaries of market favour by current-account surpluses and huge foreign-exchange reserves. America is most vulnerable to a drying-up of capital flows, which partly explains the dollar's frailty.

虽然如此，全球经济仍然强劲。事实上，美国是《经济学人》每周指南上列出的42个经济体中年度增长率最低的国家。新兴市场国家经济在快速增长并得益于流动性过剩和巨额外汇储备而有能力在市场波动面前自保。这正好跟1998年的情况相反，当时联储被迫削减利率以应对全球市场动荡。美国现在是最易受到资金缺乏袭击的国家，这部分解释了美元的虚弱地位。

The Fed—quite rightly—is reluctant to signal rate cuts at the first sign of financial-market turbulence. An institution that has been criticised for not tightening sooner and faster during the housing boom will not want to encourage excessive risk-taking now. Inflation is still the Fed's biggest worry, as it ought to be, although the concern about the housing downturn is increasing. The deepening economic gloom may well mean that it will eventually prove necessary to cut interest rates to arrest a sharper downturn. But for now, the right thing for Mr Bernanke to do is to keep standing firm.

联储明智的不愿在金融市场动荡的第一个信号出现时就作出降息表态。这个曾被批评未能在楼市繁荣时及时采取紧缩措施的机构现在也不愿冒过度的风险。就像它应该作的那样，通胀仍然是联储最关注的问题，虽然对楼市低迷的担心增加了。逐渐加强的经济衰退迹象也许终将证明降低利率以抑制经济衰退是必要的手段。但目前，伯南克先生该做的还是保持一个坚定的立场。

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