美国联邦公开市场委员会12月16日会议声明全文(中英)

以下是美联储周三在华盛顿发布的政策声明全文：

自联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 10月份会议以来收到的信息显示，经济活动在以温和步伐扩张。居民开支和商业固定投资最近几个月在以稳固速度增长，住宅领域进一步好转；然而，净出口一直疲软。近期一系列劳动力市场指标，包括就业持续增长和失业率下降，显示出进一步的改善，确认了劳动力资源利用不足的情况自年初以来显著消减。通胀继续低于委员会2%的长期目标，在部分程度上反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。基于市场的通胀补偿指标保持低位；一些基于调查的长期通胀预期指标轻微下降。

为履行其法定职责，委员会寻求促进充分就业并保持物价稳定。委员会目前预计，随着货币政策立场渐进调整，经济活动将继续以温和步伐扩张， 劳动力市场指标会继续走强。总体而言，将国内和国际局势发展纳入考量之后，委员会认为，经济活动以及劳动力市场展望面临的风险均衡。随着能源与进口产品价格下跌的临时影响消退，以及劳动力市场进一步好转， 通胀预计将在中期内升至2%。委员会将继续密切监测通胀动态。

委员会认为，劳动力市场形势今年已经显著改善，并有合理信心认为通胀将在中期内升至2%的目标。鉴于经济展望，以及认识到政策行动影响到未来经济表现所需要的时间，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至0.25%-0.5%。货币政策立场在此次加息之后将继续保持宽松，因此支持劳动力市场形势进一步好转以及通胀回归2%。

在确定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机和幅度方面，委员会将评估已实现的经济形势和预期的经济形势朝其充分就业以及2%通胀目标发展的情况。这方面的评估将考虑广泛的一系列信息，包括衡量劳动力市场状况的指标、通胀压力与通胀预期指标以及金融和国际动态方面的数据。鉴于当前通胀低于2%，委员会将密切关注向通胀目标的实际和预期进展。委员会预计，经济形势演变将使其有理由仅以渐进方式上调联邦基金利率；联邦基金利率可能在一段时间内继续低于预期中的长期水平。不过，联邦基金利率的实际路径将取决于未来数据所显示出的经济前景。

委员会维持这一现有政策：将所持机构债券与机构抵押贷款支持证券的到期本金再投资到机构抵押贷款支持证券，并在标售时将到期国债展期，直至联邦基金利率的正常化进程已经进行了相当长一段时间。这一政策通过将委员会所持长期证券维持在可观水平，应该会有助于保持宽松的金融状况。

投票支持联邦公开市场委员会本次货币政策行动的成员为：主席珍妮特· 耶伦、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Jeffrey M. Lacker、Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams。

原文

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Implementation Note issued December 16, 2015

2015 Monetary Policy Releases