金价跌到何时见买点 专家：2014年一季度

2013年国际金价跌28%，锁定1981年来最大年度跌幅，并为长达12年的牛市行情画上句号；投资者及消费者现正在推敲逢低进场的良好时机。

香港英文报纸《南华早报》报道，专家建议下一季是买进时机，因部分分析师预期金价稍晚将复苏。

今年第四季金价多数时间徘徊每盎司1300美元价位，但价格已由第一季平均的1632美元大跌至第三季的1326美元。不过专家预料，金价将在明年稍晚重拾涨势，但价格在第一季仍有进一步下跌空间。

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)分析师预估，明年平均金价将由今年的每盎司1413美元降至1300美元，但至年终会上涨收在1400美元。美国银行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)则预估明年平均金价仅1294美元，但年终会收在1350美元。

瑞银(UBS)及渣打(Standard Chartered)悲观预估，明年平均金价将仅每盎司1200美元。而尽管澳盛银行(ANZ)估计，明年第一季平均金价再跌至每盎司1150美元，但年终会强劲反弹收在1450美元。

瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)大宗商品研究部主任Dominic Schnider发布客户报告写到，他预料近期金价会跌更深。因为即便金价已处于目前低点，明年金市仍消化不了黄金ETF (指数型基金)、期货及选择权相关投资工具抛售的300-500公吨新供应黄金，相当于全年金市需求的7%-11%。“除非金价跌至1050-1150美元的边际现金生产成本，才能令供需平衡”。

不过从德国商业银行到澳盛银行皆预期，金价将在明年稍晚反弹，理由却是黄金ETF 的抛售速度预料将减缓，因美联储将提供更多的货币政策前瞻指引，加上亚洲的黄金需求强劲。

德国商银估计，明年中国黄金需求量将大致符合今年的1000公吨，取代印度成为全球最大黄金消费国。但今年第三季金价较去年同期大跌23%的印度，明年金市需求也预料将复苏。

原文

Early 2014 the best time to buy gold

Doubts grow over the precious metal’s allure as a medium-term investment as prices head for

their biggest decline since 1981

Investors and consumers looking to take advantage of lower gold prices are advised to buy next

quarter, with some analysts tipping prices to recover later, although they are set to post this

year the biggest loss since 1981.

But some doubt the attractiveness of gold as a medium-term investment, saying its function as a

hedge against inflation is likely to wane as interest rates increase after the US Federal

Reserve starts its gradual withdrawal of ultra-stimulative monetary policies that resulted in

near-zero interest rates.

Low interest rates encouraged gold buying as negative real interest rates – gross interest

rates minus inflation – saw investors trim bank deposits and seek alternative investments to

hedge wealth erosion by inflation.

This year, the price of gold was on track to record its first decline in 13 years on an annual

average basis, said a research report by Germany’s Commerzbank.

It has fallen about 27 per cent this year as investors, mostly Western ones, redeemed

exchange-traded funds backed by more than 800 tonnes of gold in anticipation of the Fed’s

tapering of quantitative easing. The extra supply was absorbed primarily by Asians buying

jewellery and investing in bars and coins, attracted by the lower prices.

Hong Kong is a key conduit for the import of gold into the mainland, and a sharp fall in gold

price in the second quarter saw a buying frenzy by mainland tourists at Hong Kong’s gold

shops, which helped support a brief rebound.

Gold also lost its lustre this year as stock markets in developed nations soared to record

levels amid low interest rates while inflation remained tame despite fears over ultra-low

rates.

Prices dropped briefly below US$1,200 an ounce after the Fed announced on December 18 that it

would cut its monthly bond purchases by US$10 billion to US$75 billion from January as the

economy in the United States improved.

Commerzbank analysts forecast the price of gold would average US$1,300 next year, while those

at Australia’s ANZ tipped US$1,269 and Bank of America Merrill Lynch US$1,294. UBS and

Standard Chartered’s calls are a less optimistic US$1,200. The year-to-date average is US

$1,413.

Gold price hovered below US$1,300 for most of the fourth quarter after falling to US$1,326 in

the third from US$1,632 in the first.

Some expect it to recover some ground later next year, although room for more downside is seen

in the first quarter.

Commerzbank analysts expected the price to rise to US$1,400 by the end of next year, while Bank

of America Merrill Lynch tipped US$1,350. ANZ forecast a rebound to US$1,450 after dipping to

US$1,150 in the first quarter.

Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management, sees more downside near

term. He said it would be difficult to absorb 300 to 500 tonnes of new supply – 7 to 11 per

cent of annual demand – from gold sales related to exchange-traded funds, futures and options

next year, even at current low prices.

“Only a fall in the price of gold to marginal cash production costs of US$1,050 to US$1,150

would balance supply and demand,” he wrote in a note.

Expectations of a recovery in prices later next year by Commerzbank and ANZ are based on the

assumption that the redemption of exchange-traded funds will ease as the Fed gives more

guidance on its policies, coupled with resilient Asian demand.

Commerzbank tipped the mainland’s gold demand next year would roughly match this year’s 1,000

tonnes, with the country overtaking India as the world’s largest consumer due to high income

and few investment alternatives.

It also expected consumer demand to recover in India next year after a 23 per cent year-on-year

decline in the third quarter of this year following three duty increases to curb imports and

rein in the country’s large trade deficit.

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