分析师：美联储加了一句话 暗示2016年前都不会加息

新闻配图

彭博策略师Christopher Maloney撰写报告称，鸽派FOMC声明指出房地产市场“进一步改善”，并且对“全球经济和金融形势”表达了担忧；上述观察是他自己的观点。加入有关全球形势的表述暗示美联储最早在2016年前都不会加息。

以下是美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三在华盛顿发布的政策声明全文：

自联邦公开市场委员会7月份会议以来收到的信息显示，经济活动在以温和步伐扩张。居民开支和商业固定投资一直在温和增长，住宅领域进一步好转；然而，净出口一直疲软。劳动力市场继续好转，就业增长稳固且失业率下降。整体而言，劳动力市场指标显示劳动力资源利用不足的情况自年初以来消减。通胀继续低于委员会的长期目标，在部分程度上反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。基于市场的通胀补偿指标下跌； 基于调查的长期通胀预期指标保持稳定。

为履行其法定职责，委员会寻求促进充分就业并保持物价稳定。最近全球经济和金融动态可能会对经济活动略有抑制，而且很可能会对近期通胀构成进一步下行压力。尽管如此，委员会预计，在适度的政策宽松之下，经济活动将以温和步伐扩张，其中劳动力市场指标会继续向委员会认为与其双重职责相一致的水平发展。委员会继续认为，经济活动以及劳动力市场展望方面的风险接近平衡，但正在监测海外动态。虽然预计通胀近期内将维持在最近的低水平附近，但委员会预计，随着劳动力市场进一步好转以及能源与进口产品价格下跌的临时影响消退，通胀在中期内会逐步升向2%。委员会将继续密切监测通胀动态。

为支持形势持续向充分就业以及物价稳定的目标发展，委员会周三确认以下看法：目前0-0.25%的联邦基金利率目标区间依然合适。在确定要将这一目标区间维持多长时间方面，委员会将评估形势朝其充分就业以及2%通胀目标发展的情况——包括已实现情况和预期情况。这方面的评估将考虑广泛的一系列信息，包括衡量劳动力市场状况的指标、通胀压力与通胀预期指标以及金融和国际动态方面的数据。委员会认为，在看到劳动力市场有些进一步好转且对通胀在中期将升向其2%目标方面抱有合理信心时，上调联邦基金利率目标区间将是合适之举。

委员会维持这一现有政策：将所持机构债券与机构抵押贷款支持证券的到期本金再投资到机构抵押贷款支持证券，并在标售时将到期国债展期。这一政策通过将委员会所持长期证券维持在可观水平，应该会有助于保持宽松的金融状况。

在决定要开始取消宽松政策时，委员会将采取平衡而且与其充分就业以及2%的通胀率这些长期目标相一致的方式。委员会目前预计，即使在就业和通胀接近与其法定职责相一致水平的情况下，经济状况在一段时间内可能有理由让委员会将联邦基金目标利率维持在其认为长期正常的水平之下。

投票支持联邦公开市场委员会本次货币政策行动的成员为：主席珍妮特· 耶伦、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Dennis P. Lockhart、Jerome H.

Powell、Daniel K. Tarullo以及John C. Williams。Jeffrey M. Lacker 投票反对此次行动，他支持在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点。

原文

Release Date: September 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.